Smart sports betting, and soccer betting in particular, is based on the skill of the teams involved as opposed to random chance. This difference greatly affects the right betting strategy or system. Understanding these differences is what makes an effective sports bettor.
Many betting systems and strategies available today are based on the general probability of winning or losing and are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. However, sports betting – and even poker – is not based on random odds and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. This means that the underlying premise of sports betting is significantly different from betting on games of chance .
Although most gambling strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has about a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least offer an effective way of betting. In the long run, failure of such a system is more or less inevitable because it is based on the Gambler Fallacy. An unambiguous fallacy is the false impression that a particular outcome is “caused” on the basis of previous results in a series of trials independent of a randomized process. For example, if someone tosses a coin, and heads appear repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that this means tails “will” appear next, so that, in reality, the odds of the next coin toss will result in exactly the same tails regardless of the number of times heads have appeared.
In skill-based betting, the bettor with the most knowledge of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor who hopes that the desired outcome “is due” based on probability. There’s no plausible mathematical probability of a particular soccer team “because” of anything. Just imagine Arsenal winning 14 games in a row in 2002, or Derby County FC losing 37 games in a row in 2007-08. The deciding factor for this run is team skill, not random chance.
That’s not to say that random chance isn’t involved, of course it does. Any team can make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upset and shocking results. Smart sports bettors know that the skill level of the team in question is much greater. more likely to influence outcomes than chance and luck. This is what makes a successful sports bettor in the long run. One can get lucky from time to time, but if one learns to make smart bets based on the skills of the teams involved, one is much more likely to win large sums of money in the long run.